Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’

After several weeks of Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive, officials from Western countries are providing increasingly sobering assessments of the likelihood of Ukrainian forces successfully reclaiming significant territory. According to four senior US and Western officials briefed on the latest intelligence and reports by CNN, the evaluations indicate growing doubts about the capability of Ukrainian forces to make substantial progress.

A senior western diplomat stated that although Ukrainian forces may continue their efforts over the next few weeks, the prospect of achieving a breakthrough that would alter the conflict’s balance appears to be extremely unlikely. Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who met with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces, described the situation as the most challenging phase of the war. The assessments are grounded in the considerable difficulty Ukrainian forces encounter in breaching Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines, particularly in the eastern and southern regions. These defensive lines are fortified with numerous mines and extensive trench networks. Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses in these areas, prompting commanders to temporarily hold back units for regrouping and casualty reduction.

Key challenges involve the fact that Ukrainian forces have not managed to breach even the initial line of Russian defenses, despite weeks of fighting. A senior Western diplomat questioned the feasibility of achieving breakthroughs if Ukrainian forces have struggled to do so in the preceding seven to eight weeks, especially considering the depletion of their forces due to the tough conditions.

Despite recognizing the challenges Ukrainian forces are facing, a senior US official expressed hope that progress could still be achieved, albeit slower and more difficult than desired. The speed of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has drawn attention, with White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, John Kirby, noting that even Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledges the pace is not as swift as desired.

The coming fall season, with anticipated worsening weather and combat conditions, represents a limited window for Ukrainian forces to make advancements. Western officials also acknowledge the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into effective mechanized fighting units with relatively short training periods on new weaponry.

The shifting assessments mark a departure from the initial optimism surrounding the counteroffensive. Unrealistic expectations from the outset have contributed to pressure on Ukraine to consider peace negotiations, possibly involving territorial concessions. There are concerns that the discrepancy between expectations and results could lead to a blame game among Ukrainian officials and their Western supporters, potentially straining the unity of the alliance formed over the course of the war.

Ukrainian President Zelensky attributed the slow progress of Ukrainian forces to delayed deliveries of advanced weapons systems from Western sources. The shortage of munitions and adequately trained brigades has hindered the counteroffensive, which was originally intended to commence in the spring.