Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis battle for the presidency in one election or the next

Analysis: The emerging political figures from both major parties are engaging in debates, blurring the lines between the upcoming 2024 and 2028 presidential elections. The televised debate between California Governor Gavin Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in Georgia prompts viewers to question whether they are witnessing the unfolding of the 2024 or 2028 presidential race.

While DeSantis is actively participating in the 2024 Republican primaries, Newsom is not on the ballot but is widely perceived as a potential Democratic candidate for 2028. Newsom’s decision to debate DeSantis on Fox News is considered a strategic move to remain in voters’ consciousness during this election cycle, with some speculating about the possibility of him stepping in if President Joe Biden decides not to seek re-election.

However, there are concerns that this approach might lead to Newsom becoming less relevant in the eyes of voters four years from now. DeSantis, despite breaking the conventional rule of not engaging with non-candidates, sees an opportunity to demonstrate his ability to confront a Democratic proxy for Biden, especially as he faces challenges in the polls and contends with competitors like Nikki Haley.

This political landscape is marked by its uniqueness, as candidates are already considering the potential vacuum left by a Biden-Trump rematch in 2028. The logjams within both parties, with Trump and Biden still holding sway over their respective primary electorates, leave the next-generation political figures navigating uncertain terrain. These emerging leaders find themselves clarifying that their actions, seemingly geared towards the next election, are, in fact, focused on the current one.

The recent op-ed by Republican Governors Kim Reynolds and Kevin Stitt, endorsing DeSantis and framing the debate in terms of the 2024 election, reflects this complex interplay. Simultaneously, Newsom emphasizes that his national platform aspirations are aimed at promoting the Democratic Party’s message and supporting Biden’s re-election, not positioning himself for a current presidential run.

The debate between DeSantis and Newsom mirrors a broader trend, exemplified by an earlier debate between 2024 Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and potential 2028 Democratic contender Rep. Ro Khanna. The dynamics in these interactions reveal the delicate balance candidates must strike between current campaigns and future aspirations.

While there is historical precedent for candidates losing primaries and returning to win nominations in subsequent elections, political strategists caution against running campaigns while constantly eyeing the next election. Striking this balance is crucial to avoiding overly cautious strategies that could hinder a candidate’s chances and reputation.