Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Warsaw has staunchly supported Kyiv. Poland has consistently taken the lead in providing military aid and equipment to Ukraine, passionately asserting that this assistance is crucial not only for Ukraine but also for Poland’s own defense against Russian aggression.
However, there has been a surprising shift in the Polish government’s stance towards Ukraine. Suddenly, it appears that political sentiments are turning against Kyiv. There is discussion of Ukraine needing to express gratitude for Polish support, with Poland’s prime minister issuing a warning about halting weapons transfers, though others in his party later attempted to soften this message.
The Polish President, Andrzej Duda, made an unmistakable comment likening Ukraine to a drowning man who could potentially drag down his rescuers, a statement seized upon by Moscow with delight.
This deterioration in relations between the two neighboring nations traces back to an unresolved dispute over grain imports. Ukraine relies on exporting its harvest, and land routes have become vital due to Russia deliberately targeting ports on the Black Sea and Danube River. However, to safeguard its own farmers, Poland refuses to permit cheaper Ukrainian grain to enter its domestic market, allowing it to pass through to the rest of the European Union only in transit. For Poland’s governing Law and Justice party (PiS), the equation is straightforward: the party seeks to avoid competition for its farmers and secure their votes in the upcoming elections.
While Kyiv is deeply frustrated, Poland’s public discourse, including social media, is dominated by pre-election discussions, often marked by shockingly hostile tones. PiS currently leads in opinion polls, but the margins are tight, making the outcome uncertain.
In pursuit of votes, PiS positions itself as the staunchest defender of Polish interests. Therefore, redefining its role in assisting Ukraine is just one of the cards it plays, alongside other populist issues such as migration.
Piotr Lukasiewicz, from the Polityka Insight analysis group, clarifies that this shift is not about grain or weapons; it’s about appealing to the conservative electorate’s sentiments. PiS constructs its narrative around the belief that Ukraine is insufficiently appreciative of Polish support, and that Ukrainians in Poland receive excessive social services and financial assistance.
PiS is also striving to attract voters from the far-right Konfederacja party, which currently garners close to 10% support. This week, Konfederacja members protested at the Ukrainian embassy in Warsaw, displaying a mock invoice for Poland’s support to Kyiv and asserting that the cost exceeded 100 billion zloty (£18.79 billion, $23.1 billion) with no expression of gratitude.
Opposition politicians criticize the government’s conduct as dangerous nationalism. However, Poland’s change in tone is not an isolated incident.
The specter of “Ukraine fatigue” looms over election campaigns from Slovakia to the United States, which is a significant concern for Kyiv as it relies on sustained and unwavering Western support in its conflict with Russian forces.
The Polish government emphasizes that international aid will continue to reach Ukraine’s frontlines through Rzeszow in the east, a crucial hub for supplies ranging from tanks to ammunition. Simultaneously, negotiations between Ukraine and Poland regarding the grain dispute are ongoing, with efforts from both sides to prevent the war of words from escalating into a full-blown crisis.
While PiS pursues rural and conservative votes, support for Ukraine remains robust in Warsaw. However, some view this shift in Poland’s stance as potentially damaging.
“Words matter,” contends analyst Piotr Lukasiewicz, suggesting that Poland’s new approach could have adverse consequences for the country.
Read more: Russia launches air attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities
1 Comment