OTC Weekly Market Outlook (04/05/2022): Fear of Global Recession Rising

The market got off to a rough start this week as BTC fell more than 4% after OPEC+ vaguely announced that it would cut production by 1.16 million barrels from May. Gasoline prices rose more than 8% after the news, raising concerns that higher oil prices will put pressure on the global economy.
The altcoin market has been underperforming for the past 7 days, with some coins outperforming others while others struggle to keep up.
DOGE is up 30% after Elon Musk tweeted to replace the Twitter logo with the Dogecoin logo – Twitter users now see the Dogecoin logo appear in the upper left corner of their Twitter home screen on the Web.
ETH has been trading well since Monday and finally settled above the $1,840 resistance level that has been rejected multiple times since mid-March.
The chart above shows the return on assets for the first quarter of 2023:
- BTC / USDT up +71.60%
  - ETH / USDT up +51.75%
    - Gold up +21.51%
      - S&P 500 up +7.46%
        
        01 Nasdaq
BTC outperforms most asset classes in Q1 2023, including many cryptoassets like ETH. After the failures of Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank, BTC began to gain greater recognition as a fiduciary asset, as it was originally conceived.
ETH underperformed BTC in the first quarter when the Shanghai update scheduled for April 12 arrived. While investors believe that there could be a major pullback in ETH once development is complete, this statement has added stress to the ETH price as well as all ETH transactions.
The chart above shows the return on assets for the first quarter of 2023:
- BTC / USDT up +71.60%
  - ETH / USDT up +51.75%
    - Gold up +21.51%
      - S&P 500 up +7.46%
        
        01 Nasda
BTC outperforms most asset classes in Q1 2023, including many cryptoassets like ETH. After the failures of Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank, BTC began to gain greater recognition as a fiduciary asset, as it was originally conceived.
ETH underperformed BTC in the first quarter when the Shanghai update scheduled for April 12 arrived. While investors believe there will be a massive pullback in ETH once development is complete, the announcement puts pressure on ETH price and the entire ETH trading contract more than 1% below ETH last week.

Convert Portal Volume Breakdown

Crypto-to-crypto (+1.8%) activity continues, with massive activity driven by interest in altcoins moving away from slow activity rate (-1.6%).
This will be watched as there is no news of a stable and more interest market revival as stable currencies (BUSD, USDC, TUSD) find more and more ground for 1:1 or 1:1 Stablecoins (crypto). Stablecoins held back to +1.2%.

Macro at a glance

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy increased by 0.3% MoM on Friday, 31/03/23, beating expectations for a 0.4% increase and a 0.5% month-on-month increase. U.S. Treasury bond yields fell while all risky assets rose, as the Fed carefully monitors the index as an indicator of inflation.
BTC rose about 3% after the data was released and was rejected at 28,600.
Sunday (04/02/23) OPEC+’s announcement that it will reduce production by 1.16 million barrels from May and oil prices increased by more than 8% raise concerns about global economic growth.
Monday (04/03/23) After the Bank of Canada (BoC) suspended interest rate hikes in March, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also suspended interest rate hikes, allowing the currency to appreciate by 3.60%.
AUD/USD fell 0.8% to 0.6722.
On Tuesday (04/04/23) the US announced that JOLT’s job record for February was 9.931 million, below the expected 10.
40 million and 10,563 million last month. Data shows the economy is slowing, with fewer hiring and more layoffs. This has raised concerns that the Fed’s rate hikes are slowing growth and that the fight will lead to a recession. Gold price broke the 2,000 level and settled at $2,020/ounce as market sentiment changed drastically.
As the market continues to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and shares similar characteristics with gold, BTC also rose to $28,175.

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