Crypto insiders are anxious and divided as the decision date for the spot Ether ETF approaches

Betting markets now indicate a 61% chance of U.S. spot Ether ETF approval, a significant increase from less than 11% just a few days ago.

As the deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approaches, expectations are high.

Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer of digital wealth platform Yield App, highlighted the recent 20% surge in Ether’s price, noting that it “took many by surprise.” He advised investors to proceed with caution: “The SEC hasn’t made its decision on the ETH spot ETFs yet; it could go either way. Even if approved, we might still see a short-term pullback similar to what happened with spot BTC ETFs.”

Jeff Owens, co-founder of layer-1 blockchain Haven1, shared similar sentiments. He remarked, “The unexpected rise in Ether’s price underscores the high stakes surrounding the SEC’s potential approval of a spot ETH ETF.” He added that such approval could trigger a broad rally among altcoins, many of which are built on the Ethereum Virtual Machine: “We’ve already seen the impact on ETH and on the prices of most altcoins, particularly L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism, as well as DeFi mainstays like Uniswap and Aave.”

Some experts were even more optimistic in their predictions. Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of FX research at Standard Chartered Bank, projected that the approval of spot Ether ETFs could lead to inflows ranging from $15 billion to $45 billion.

Multiple U.S. Ether ETFs are under review, with the final decision for the VanEck ETF due on May 23, followed by ARK Invest and 21Shares on May 24. Recently, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas increased the approval probability from 25% to 75%, citing political pressure on regulators. Currently, betting markets estimate a 61% chance of ETF approval.

However, the anticipation has caused notable volatility in major cryptocurrencies. Owens cautioned that an SEC rejection could lead to a “significant price correction,” while an approval might trigger a “sell the news” event in the short term.

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